2009 Kentucky Derby Field, Odds, And Predictions

The running of the 135th Kentucky Derby takes place this Saturday.  The mile and a quarter race has a set post time of 6:24 PM and a field of 20 horses to pick from.  Here is the complete field in starting gate order, jockey, and opening odds:

  1. West Side Bernie (Elliott)  30-1
  2. Musket Man (Coa) 20-1
  3. Mr. Hot Stuff (Velazquez) 30-1
  4. Advice (Douglas) 30-1
  5. Hold Me Back (Desormeaux) 15-1
  6. Friesan Fire (Saez) 6-1
  7. Papa Clem (Bejarno) 20-1
  8. Mine That Bird (Borel) 50-1
  9. Join In The Dance (DeCarlo) 50-1
  10. Regal Ransom (Garcia) 30-1
  11. Chocolate Candy (Smith) 20-1
  12. General Quarters (Leparoux) 20-1
  13. I Want Revenge (Talamo) 3-1
  14. Atomic Rain (Bravo) 50-1
  15. Dunkirk (Prado) 4-1
  16. Pioneer Of The Nile (Gomez) 4-1
  17. Summer Bird (Rosier) 50-1
  18. Nowhere To Hide (Bridgmohan) 50-1
  19. Desert Party (Dominquez) 15-1
  20. Flying Private (Albarado) 50-1

I have a theory on a race with this many horses running – bet the underdogs.  The reason I feel this way is because a field of 20 horses makes coming around the turn and down the stretch an additional unrehearsed challenge.  It is hard to maneuver a horse through that much traffic without getting boxed in or having to go so wide that you lengthen the race for the horse.  So my advice for this race is to use a favorite that wont pay much and put him with two underdogs.

Another rule I need to follow, at least for this derby, is to eliminate the 17, 18, 19, and 20 horses.  Desert Party, the 19 horse, has a shot but I feel that as a closer the horse needs a narrower field.  The other of these three horses are all 50-1 and starting outside isn’t good news for any of them.

I like the favorite to finish in the top three.  I Want Revenge, at 3-1, is a solid bet.  Since there isn’t much money to be made I want I Want Revenge to finish third in my box trifecta.

My pick to win the race is Hold Me Back.  At 15-1 this is a horse that closes in 6 1/2 furlong races, shorter than The Derby.  Using this logic, I am hoping that the horse has enough in the tank to use that kick down the stretch at Churchill Downs this Saturday. 

The weather forecast for the race calls for a 30% chance of rain and temperatures in the low 70′s.

Predicted Winner: #5 Hold Me Back

Trifecta Prediction: 13 – 5 – 11

Let me know what you think! 

The 13 horse and favorite, I Want Revenge Is Probably Going To Get Scratched.  If this is the case, then I like the 5-6-11 box trifecta. 

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