2012 Kentucky Derby Preview

Bruce Zoldan and his comrades at Team Valor are in the big race again with Went The Day Well.  The Team Valor entry will start from the #13 position and Johnny Velazquez riding the 20-1 longshot with the local ties.  Last year, Team Valor pulled the upset at the 137th Kentucky Derby when Animal Kingdom crossed the finish line first.

Bodemeister has been tapped the 4-1 favorite to win the first leg of this year’s Triple Crown.  Union Rags can almost be considered a co-favorite at 9-2.  With a field of 20 horses, the gamblers must remember that unless a favorite can go wire-to-wire, it is easy to get boxed in with such a crowded track.  That is why I do not like to bet the chalk in these big races.  They are all good horses and their times are not that different.  The possibility of rain is in the forecast, and on a sloppy track, a mule can beat a gazelle, you just never know what might happen.

Here is the entire field, with jockey and odds in the order of starting gate position:

1.  Daddy Long Legs (O’Donahue)               30-1

2.  Optimizer  (Court)                                  50-1

3.  Take Charge Indy (Borel)                        15-1

4.  Union Rags (Leparoux)                            9-2

5.  Dullahan (Desormeaux)                           8-1

6.  Bodemeister (Smith)                                4-1

7.  Rousing Sermon (Lezcano)                    50-1

8.  Creative Cause (Rosario)                        12-1

9.  Trinniberg (Martinez)                             50-1

10.  Daddy Nose Best (Gomez)                    15-1

11.  Alpha (Maragh)                                    15-1

12.  Prospective (Conteras)                         30-1

13.  Went The Day Well (Velazquez)            20-1

14.  Hansen (Dominguez)                           10-1

15.  Gemologist (Castellano)                        6-1

16.  El Padrino (Bejarano)                           20-1

17.  Done Talking (Russell)                        50-1

18.  Sabercat (Nakatani)                             30-1

19.  I’ll Have Another (Gutierrez)                12-1

20.  Liaison (Garcia)                                   50-1

The best way for me to deal with such a big field is to eliminate the horses I do not like.  Starting with I’ll Have Another, who would bet a horse with a drinking problem?    Hanson was my least favorite 90’s band – whack the 14 for association by name, sort of.  Take Charge Indy sounds like it should be in a NASCAR race, not the Derby.  Liaison, Gemologist, and Sabercat were all named from someones thesaurus, so I eliminate them.

Earlier, I made it clear that in a crowded field, I dislike the favorites, so Bodemeister and Union Rags can’t be in my picks.

My pick to win the race is Dullahan.  I like Desormeaux on the horse, he is a good jockey with a good record.  I think Went The Day Well and Daddy Nose Best will finish two and three, either way.

So your bet should read….  5 over the 13 and 10 in boxed exacta and trifecta wagers.  See you at the window!

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