2010 Kentucky Derby Odds, Positioning, And Prediction

They are at the post… and they’rrre off!  The 2010 Kentucky Derby runs this Saturday at Churchill Downs.  This is the 136th running of the famed race where first place will pay $1,425,200 – a far cry from a claims race.  2009 saw Mine That Bird charge from way back to win the big one.  Is there another longshot capable?

Here is the starting position, followed by the horse and jockey and current odds:

  1. Lookin At Lucky (Garrett Gomez3-1
  2. Ice Box (Jose Lezcano10-1
  3. Noble’s Promise (Willie Martinez12-1
  4. Super Saver (Calvin Borel) 15-1
  5. Line of David (Rafael Bejarano) 30-1
  6. Stately Victor (Alan Garcia30-1
  7. American Lion (David Flores30-1
  8. Dean’s Kitten (Robby Albarado50-1
  9. Make Music For Me  (Joel Rosario50-1
  10. Paddy O’Prado (Kent Desormeaux20-1
  11. Devil May Care (John Velazquez10-1
  12. Conveyance (Martin Garcia12-1
  13. Jackson Bend (Mike Smith15-1
  14. Mission Impazible (Rajiv Maragh20-1
  15. Discreetly Mine (Javier Castellano30-1
  16. Awesome Act (Julien Leparoux10-1
  17. Dublin (Terry Thompson12-1
  18. Backtalk (Miguel Mena50-1
  19. Homeboykris  (Ramon Dominguez 50-1
  20. Sidney’s Candy (Joe Talamo 5-1

The one horse and the twenty horse, Lookin At Lucky and Sidney’s Candy respectively, are starting at opposite ends of the gate, but the experts see them finishing side by side.  Garrett Gomez is a much better jockey than Joe Talamo, but starting from the inside will be tough as all of the other nineteen horses try to close to the inside.  I see (1) Lookin At Lucky getting boxed in and playing no factor in the outcome.  Sidney’s Candy will finish somewhere in the top three.

My longshot to bet is the #8 horse, Dean’s Kitten.  I like Robby Albarado atop this horse and think that it is a blessing to start in the middle.  Another longshot worth checking out is (19) Homeboykris, co-owned by New York Yankees Manager, Joe Torre.  Homeboykris should lose by twenty lengths, but if he loses by more than that, expect jockey Ramon Dominguez to be pitching out of the Yankees pen in middle relief by July.  Post time is 6:24 pm and the weather is calling for a good chance of precipitation.

Winner:  #4  Super SaverCalvin Borel lives for this day and loves the limelight.  Expect his magic to continue.

Trifecta:  #4 Super Saver, #20 Sidney’s Candy, & #8 Dean’s Kitten.

Leave a comment and let me know what you predict and good luck!

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